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Tom Wojcik’s report, with figures through Sept. 26, 2026, traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure on oil prices, fuel availability and fertiliser supplies. It also describes pressure on harvests and winter heating, while warning that the scale and timing of some impacts remain uncertain.
Tom Wojcik’s report, published with figures through Sept. 26, 2026, describes how the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is contributing to pressure on oil markets, fuel supplies and fertiliser access. The account connects those effects to food production and winter heating, including in Poland, where Wojcik says households depend on coal and imported gas.
Wojcik says U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, and that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent, according to the report, which attributes to the International Energy Agency the assessment that this is the largest oil supply disruption the market has seen.
Oil prices rose after a ceasefire that had brought them back to pre-war levels in early summer broke down. The report puts Brent crude near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and $108 on Sept. 24. It says Iran sent Washington a written proposal on Sept. 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade; Washington rejected it.
The report also describes sharply higher tanker costs and local fuel strains. It says the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF was up more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September, while some supertanker day rates reached about $860,000 on Sept. 10. In France, official data cited by Wojcik showed 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage, and the report says most affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, whose price cap drew customers faster than tanks could be refilled.
From Oil Routes to Food Supplies
The report’s central point is that disruption to one shipping route can spread into several parts of daily life. The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the report. The Food and Agriculture Organization warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. That impact may not appear immediately: crops already planted can mask a shortfall until harvest.
Higher fuel costs also affect transport and heating. Wojcik points to Poland’s reliance on coal and imported gas, and describes the coming winter as a pressure point. For readers, the stakes are not limited to pump prices: the same disruption may shape food costs, energy security and public budgets. The account presents these as linked risks, while the ultimate scale depends on how long the closure and related supply constraints last.
A Fragile Supply Chain
Wojcik frames the events as a stress test for supply systems built around just-in-time deliveries and dependence on outside suppliers. The report tracks the route from Hormuz through fuel markets, fertiliser and crops, and then to European energy needs. It also says the Red Sea route offers no simple workaround: Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month, near the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint.
Other pressures were already present. The report says Ukrainian drones struck Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, based on the IEA’s count, and that Russian refining output fell to a two-decade low. Moscow restricted fuel exports, while U.S. diesel prices exceeded $6 a gallon on Sept. 10, according to Wojcik. The report also notes that 2025 was the first year in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and estimates food-assistance funding fell 59 percent from 2022 to 2025.
Weather and planting decisions add a separate strain. After a European potato glut in 2025, growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less, the report says. Five heatwaves and drought followed. Their growers’ organisation expects a harvest down 25 percent, one of the smallest in a decade. The report says Belgian processing-potato prices rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
“Scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.”
— Food and Agriculture Organization, as summarized in Tom Wojcik’s report
The Duration of the Disruption
The source account does not establish when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen or whether further diplomatic efforts will succeed. It reports that Washington rejected Iran’s proposal, but does not provide a confirmed timetable for renewed talks or military action. A separate report cited by Wojcik said the U.S. president expected bombing to resume after the November midterm elections; that remains an attributed expectation, not a confirmed decision.
The future extent of food and energy impacts is also unsettled. The FAO warning concerns possible yield and supply effects, while the World Food Programme estimate cited in the report says sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. The report does not specify a time window or baseline for that estimate. Nor does it give a full account of Poland’s gas storage position or quantify likely household heating costs.
Reopening and Harvest Indicators
The next indicators in the report’s account are whether tanker traffic through Hormuz resumes, whether oil prices remain elevated, and whether any ceasefire proposal leads to negotiations. For food supplies, harvest results and fertiliser availability will show how much of the predicted pressure materializes. In Europe, attention will also turn to winter energy supplies and the ability of fuel stations and distributors to keep pace with demand. Wojcik’s figures run through Sept. 26, so later developments may change the outlook.
Key Questions
What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz?
Wojcik’s report says Iran has kept the strait closed since March, after U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran began in late February. It reports that tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent.
Why could the closure affect food prices?
The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the report. The FAO warns that limited supplies could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
Was France running out of fuel?
The French government ruled out a national shortage, according to the report. Official data cited by Wojcik showed 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, with most of the affected stations belonging to TotalEnergies.
Has Iran’s proposal led to a ceasefire?
The report says Iran submitted a proposal on Sept. 22 for a ceasefire of up to 60 days and a phased reopening of the strait. Washington rejected it, and the source does not report a subsequent agreement.
Source: hn
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